Recidivism The goal in determining strong recidivism statistics is to protect citizens, punish those who have committed crimes, and rehabilitate those that are destined to return to the community. Recidivism is the failure to desist from criminal behavior by former prisoners or offenders after intervention by the criminal justice system. For the past 20 years, criminal justice professionals have relied heavily on the use of recidivism statistics to help evaluate rehabilitation programs, to understand predictors of criminal behavior, and to forecast success rates for upcoming parolees.

The proper analysis of recidivism is critical because of its role as an indicator of future crime. The Bureau of Justice Statistics tracked criminal recidivism among 300,000 prisoners released in 15 states in 1994 that showed 67.5% of the prisoners were rearrested for new offenses within a three-year period. In order to accumulate recidivism statistics the act of re-offending requires voluntary disclosure, arrest, or reincarceration.

When attempting to forecast whether a prisoner will re-offend once released into the community, there are several variables that are important to consider before setting prisoners free. Factors to add into the equation in assessing possible recidivism are extremely far-ranging and require individual analysis. Most psychologists believe that genetics account for about 50% of the reason why people act the way they do. There are instances where seemingly normal individuals with strong family networks and good upbringings can experience a powerful behavioral change due to the immediate situation of his or her environment. When someone has been incarcerated for an extended period of time, one would expect that the reentry shift into the community would be difficult but how much effect does it have on recidivism?

As Jeremy Travis reported on transitioning prisoners into the community for the 2003 Annual Review of Sociology, post-prison reintegration and adjustment directly affect the recidivism rate. In order to determine more accurate recidivism forecasts, he suggests considering individual characteristics of the offender, family relationships, and community contexts of reentry. Individual characteristics to consider for possible parolees include behavioral indicators that led to the offense, criminal history, and the type of criminal activity perpetrated by the offender.

A key indicator and stepping stone to serious, chronic criminal activity is Antisocial Personality Disorder (APD). APD is often easier to identify in children before they become adults and learn to disguise their behaviors. In a study conducted by sociologist Lee Robins at Washington University School of Medicine, 30 years of the lives of more than 500 children were reconstructed who were clinical patients in the 1920s to find precursors of chronic sociopathic behavior. Robins found that “Without exception—adult sociopaths were antisocial before they were 18” and “approximately 50% of children will continue to have antisocial behavior into adulthood.” (Magid and McKelvey, 1987).

Studying individual characteristics and the psychopathy of the criminal offender before incarceration will help determine appropriate sentencing, establish effective rehabilitation methods, and assist in tailoring reentry programs aimed at fostering post-prison success. Conversely, it will also help determine if the efforts of the criminal justice system are merely gratuitous.

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